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It Is Probably Not Advisable To Win The Forthcoming Election.
Whoever is in power next week or after another election in a few months time if it is a hung parliament this time will be taking over at an incredibly difficult time. Whether it be Labour, The Tories or Lib Dems they will have to raise taxes and make cuts. They will not be popular at all and could be blamed for being the ones in charge at the time when the mess was being cleaned up.
 StBalders  01 May 2010 20:09
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I can see it now. The Tories will get in and they will have to go about the tough job of cleaning up the economic mess that this government has left them. They will look like the bad guys and the labourites will be there sniping at them saying "we told you so, look at them ruining everything". And people will buy it too.

They are probably better off, selfishly speaking, losing this one and let Labour deal with the results of their own making.
 StBalders  01 May 2010 20:13
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EDIT: Why do I always seem to find myself on the opposite side of the debate to the person who's thinking I have most in common with here?

I see what you are getting at, but I disagree for two reasons:

1. It shouldn't be too hard for the Tories to simply blame Labour for the problems for at least a couple of years, by which time the economy will be fine. Even taking control fairly early on in the recession isn't a big problem if you can simply palm off blame (perhaps correctly, I make no judgement) to your predecessor. See Obama in the US.

2. I don't think it is ever advisable to not try and win an election because even if you are right St you rely on a prediction of the future which is in my book too uncertain. We can rarely if ever be sure enough that a set of circumstances post-election will play out that it is worth the risk to not be in power.

Now don't get me wrong, there are two obvious counterarguments to that (kind of one, but it deals with both parts). Basically we can be fairly sure that the next government will have to make cuts, and this thus makes the scenario different from America where cuts weren't used. Since the UK economy hasn't seen actual cuts since 1945 (contrary to popular belief Thatched didn't shrink the public sector, only in % terms) it is perfectly possible that the UK people may be shocked and outraged and backlash against the government, whomever they are. I would hold nonetheless that in reality we are too far from certainty (not merely not certain, but too far away from that) to make it worth the risk; it is almost always better to be in power in this country.
 Quincel  01 May 2010 20:57
 I agree with you personally really so don't worry, I am just more cynical where you are more positive. I have taken a big compliment from you, thanks to your edit.

I am thinking from a rather cynical and selfish view - as if I was politician looking after my own back rather than the country. I have thought this for a while and someone important (I wish I could remember names) said it the other day - was it the governor of the bank of England? He said whoever was in next would have to be so hard - harder than Thatcher - to sort the mess out that they would be hated and could face a generation in the political wilderness.

I admire your faith both on our economic prospects and in our population to see the truth but I am unable to fully join your positive outlook. I worry that the Labour spin machine will go into overdrive - they are very good in oppostion - and blame the Tories for everything, when really it was them that caused it. I know Labour were still blaming the tories 7 or 8 years into their reign but they will forget all that. It happened with Thatcher just the same, she was ruthlessly cleaning up the mess left to her and she is still vilified.
by  StBalders
 01 May 2010 23:50
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